Northern Fury - Check out the book based on CMANO scenarios

CHM · Post by **CHM** » Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:06 pm

Interesting blog post. I imagine with Phoenixes in short supply and Sparrows hopeless, AMRAAM production has been accelerated. I wonder how quickly the F-14 could be configured to fire them? And the Sovs must be running out of planes by now...

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:17 pm

And the Sovs must be running out of planes by now...

The next scenario may give you a few indicators on that one...

thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:21 pm

One thing about missile inventories is you can make them easier than your enemy can produce pilots and airplanes. Its also why more sophisticated ASBM and cruise missiles can potentially change the game.

There are a few older posts on the forum around the missile attrition battle. There were some interesting resources in them.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:17 pm

Yeah, I was quite surprised at how well stocked the US was with some high end and expensive missiles. Most of the ones mentioned were the latest versions and it seemed more a matter of time to produce than intent to procure causing the shortage.

I think the Phoenix was an exception as it was so cutting edge when it first came out but by the time the F-14 was due to retire it was not supported as much as some of the others. I think it is a rare example of an aircraft and a missile being uniquely matched in the late Cold War, such as the MiG-31 and AA-9 Amos.

This is going to make some of the later scenarios in the battleset a bit more interesting and challenging.

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Coiler12 · Post by **Coiler12** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:49 am

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
The monthly rate of production, each missile taking over two years to build, was about 30-34. That represents one medium sized engagement in CMO!

I remember for one big scenario editor furball (between the US and Iraqi air forces, so the comparison was easy), more AAMs were fired in that one battle than in the entirety of the real Gulf War.

thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:45 pm

According to Missile Forecast, the AIM-54A production rate was 40/month for 10 years (1970 to 1980). When the 54C entered production, quality and production problems halted deliveries numerous times and a large number of missiles had to be rebuilt. Reading between the lines, it was the reprogrammable memory subsystems and electronics cooling systems that cause the problems. The background stated that at one time the USN in the mid-80s had fewer than 70 AIM-54Cs in inventory. The rest being fairly old 54As.

Might want to factor that into some scenarios. I also think that is why the two year number is feasible. Based on both production capacity and final throughput that factors in production halts, it seems reasonable.

I think way too little attention is paid to actual missile inventories when setting up scenarios. In real life, its the inventories of SM-2, 6, and 3 missiles I always wonder about. An Aegis equipped ship with VLS can deplete itself of missiles in a minutes-long engagement. How does it replenish? Where are the missile stocks? How fast can new missiles be brought in-theater? How fast can the US make new missiles.

Back in the day, you could knock bombers down faster than they replace aircraft and crews. But with better cruise missiles and potentially ASBMs in play, you have to rethink all of those questions. But its a good question to ask even in this mid-80s story.

thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:53 pm

https://www.forecastinternational.com/a ... RC_ID=1066

This is the missile forecast I mentioned. These forecasts are scattered all over the web. I have been slowly collecting them as I find them. They are outdated from a forecast standpoint, but contain really good info on missile development and deployment.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:39 pm

Yeah that is the same reference I used, linked in a post above as well as:

https://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_disp ... d=700&ct=2

http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-54.html

The AiM-54 issue is factored into my last scenario (NF-40 Tongs) and will be a main feature in my next one (NF-41 Tour de Force), as will many of the other missiles in the blog

There were a good number of SM-2 missiles available (the SM-2 MR/ER were the most common in 94) but ships need to get into a major port to be replenished. This has only featured in one of my scenarios so far (NF-10 Eisenhower moves North) where the CVBG starts quite spread out with a couple ships catching up from a port visit in Toulon and a bunch more are in Rota while the CVN and only two escorts heads north at speed. Those two ships have to call in at Brest to replen their depleted stocks - so juggling that and defending against an Oscar are the players main problem.

I don't know the distribution that the USN had but assume that Rota, Naples, Souda Bay and Faslane have stocks. In NF-41 60% of the available TLAMs are on a ship coming out of Norfolk and has a 4 day journey to be in useful range. Two other ships need to depart at a certain point to go to Norfolk (from the Norwegian Sea). Actually a lot of the scenario is based on logistics in general.

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thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:02 pm

This is an excel file I started building a couple weeks ago. Just to take a look at modern missile inventories. It covers the important missile systems in the USN. Mostly SAMs, but a few SSM and AGM.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:08 pm

Very nice. It's not surprising but still interesting how far missile stocks have dropped in the past 26 years since '94. I've misplaced my link on how many SM-1 & SM-2s there were in the early 90's but 6-7,000 comes to mind.

Assuming the cost quoted is in 1,000's?

Another source, not as thorough is: http://www.deagel.com/Defensive-Weapons ... 48016.aspx

thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:20 pm

The only source I found on inventories that far back is the Raytheon produced 5000 SM-2s of all varieties to global demand. It at least gives you a ballpark.

And yes, 1,000s.

Also, I use deagle a lot to track procurement, but most of the time, they don't have inventory or unit numbers, from the ones I have looked at.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:00 pm

Thanks

And there was a bunch of conversions to SM-1 as well. Cheers

thewood1 · Post by **thewood1** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:38 pm

btw, those numbers include shipboard loadouts as well.

Rob322 · Post by **Rob322** » Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:37 pm

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

And the Sovs must be running out of planes by now...

The next scenario may give you a few indicators on that one...

Ivan run out of planes? He's probably got a lot of Mig-15's stashed away somewhere, right next to the vehicle park of T-34's for the Army! [:D]

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:55 am

Mig-15's stashed away

Well first the older MiG-23's, than a few thousand MiG-21, then the MiG-19s before we get to those - but its a fair point [:D]

Rob322 · Post by **Rob322** » Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:44 am

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Mig-15's stashed away

Well first the older MiG-23's, than a few thousand MiG-21, then the MiG-19s before we get to those - but its a fair point [:D]

Sounds like the next scenario is going to be painful ... [&o]

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:00 pm

Northern Fury: H-Hour, Audiobook now available on Audible, iTunes and Amazon.

You can get it on Audible at the links below. Joining Audable via this link, if you decide to do so, helps us out:

North America: https://www.audible.com/pd/B087C9824B/? ... 2718_rh_us

UK: https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/B087CC1L7S ... 2718_rh_uk

France: https://www.audible.fr/pd/B087C9Q9LZ/?s ... 2718_rh_fr

Germany: https://www.audible.de/pd/B087C983JZ/?s ... 2718_rh_de

If you're already an Audable member, taking our book for your monthly choice also helps us out

Take care and stay healthy.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Sat May 02, 2020 11:59 am

Northern Fury: H-Hour anniversary sale! Yes our book has been on the market for a year now and support has been fantastic. If you haven’t got a copy yet now is the time Ebook is- $1.99 on Amazon.com https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07R7BVQ31?re ... _276849420 and £1.99 in the UK until 7 May.

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Tue May 05, 2020 11:01 am

A paper co-authored by someone we know well, about an area Northern Fury is all about.

https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridg ... high-north

Well done Joel

Gunner98 · Post by **Gunner98** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:47 am

Hay guys check out the cover art Adriana at the Slitherine Graphics department created for our upcoming Novella.

This is a side story about the Norwegian Coast Guard cutter Nordkapp - you may remember her from Northern Fury scenario #1: H-Hour, and if you've played NF #33: Into the Night, you would have met her again.

During our main story line she received a couple of mentions in H-Hour and will show up again in the later books, but only briefly.

We hope to have several of these Novellas to fill in gaps and side stories over the next few years.

Check out the cover:

Northern Fury - Check out the book based on CMANO scenarios

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